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经济学院专家讲座:胡武阳教授讲座预告

报告题目:运用元分析与实地实验考察受偿意愿估值法中的虚拟误差

报告人:胡武阳  教授

报告摘要:

虚拟误差是所有学者在收集原始数据时需要注意并解决的问题。传统观点认为“受偿意愿”估值法会导致大范围虚拟误差,以致近几十年来受偿意愿估值法备受学界冷落。本文梳理超过500篇学术论文,最终通过以84项研究进行的元分析揭示,学界维持了几十年的观点很有可能是被一篇结论极端的论文所影响,在剔除这篇论文的影响后,与“支付意愿”估值法相比,受偿意愿估值法本身并不会导致更大的虚拟误差。在此基础上,本文进行了一项专门实地实验,实验结果验证了元分析得到的结论。

Abstract:

Hypothetical bias (HB) is often considered a main source of weakness for valuation surveys of any kind and the bias is thought to be even stronger if the valuation process is framed as willingness to accept (WTA) rather than willingness to pay (WTP). After reviewing both published and unpublished articles, we conduct a meta-analysis of whether and to what extent WTA studies may have HB. Out of the 84 records that used WTA elicitation methods in both hypothetical and real elicitations, one single study appears to have influenced the perception of extreme HB in WTA. Most others exhibit no evidence of HB or evidence that it is a less severe problem for hypothetical WTA studies compared to historic patterns for WTP studies. We then conduct a field experiment eliciting both hypothetical and real WTA for a private good. Results show no evidence of HB. Our findings challenge the long-held belief to avoid WTA elicitations for fear of associated HB and exaggerated economic values.

报告时间:2019年7月11日(周四)下午3:00

报告地点:经济学院会议室(JC1007)

报告人简介:

胡武阳,美国俄亥俄州立大学AED经济系教授、博士生导师。2011年起至今担任加拿大农业经济协会旗舰刊物、SSCI/SCI双索引期刊《加拿大农业经济》(Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics)首席主编,并任加拿大农经学会总会决策小组常委,美国农业与应用经济协会中国区主席(2012-2015),中国中央电视台美国总部特邀电视评论员。研究兴趣包括消费经济学,行为经济学,市场营销,发展经济学,应用计量经济学,以及环境资源经济学。多次获得美国、加拿大等国各类国际学术组织年度最佳论文奖。在《美国农业经济》(American Journal of Agricultural Economics),《环境经济与管理》(Journal of Environmental Economics and Management),《欧洲农业经济评论》(European Review of Agricultural Economics),《行为与实验经济》(Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics),《增长与变化》(Growth and Change)等多家国际SSCI期刊公开发表论文六十余篇,长期担任五十余家国际期刊的特邀评委。